FOR WHOM THE BELL TOLLS

It’s the silly season in politics. The Presidential election is over. The Bombay Blasts verdict has concluded. And the nuclear deal has been signed, sealed and delivered. So when someone asked me the other day what the next big political story is going to be, I had to wreck my brains quite a bit. And I came up with one. Narendra Modi’s electoral defeat. That to me is going to be the next big story in the Great Indian political jamboree.

Imagine the amplitude and resonance, such an event would have. The poster boy of the Sangh Parivar’s Hindutva philosophy is made to eat crow at the hustings. For the jholewallahs and the so-called secularists, it would be a reason to celebrate from the rooftops. For the tens of thousands who were affected by the riots, it will be cursory justice. But for people like me it will be the ultimate affirmation of the efficacy of our electoral system. That after all, there’s no place for despots in a democracy.




Here’s why Narendrabhai’s days in the hot seat are numbered. There has been open rebellion against him. Five of his MLAs, including his one-time Home Minister have been suspended from the party. Two major communities of Gujarati society, the Koli Patels and the Patidars are highly disillusioned with Modi and his government. And the final cut. His own brethren in the VHP and Bajrang Dal have sworn that they will not campaign for him.

But more than any of these, Modi’s defeat will be caused by simple electoral dynamics. The 2002 election result was an abberation. Something that was facilitated by the riots. At first look, it may seem like the BJP scored a landslide. After all, 126 seats, a two-thirds majority in an assembly of 180 is an avalanche of sorts. But there’s more to it than meets the eye. If you break Gujarat into the four regions of Saurashtra, South, North and Central, you’ll notice that the BJP had gained largely in Central and North. It has a vote swing of 17 and 8 percent in these two regions. Contrast this with South and Saurashtra, where the party’s vote share went down by 8 and 3 percent. So what explains the BJP’s phenomenal success in North and Central Gujarat?

Central and North Gujarat were the worst affected by the riots. Districts like Ahmedabad, Baroda, Mehsana, Dahod, Panchmahals, Anand and Kaira fall in this region and that’s where the impact of the riots was felt most. There were a total of 65 riot-affected constituencies in Gujarat. Of these the BJP won more than 50. And that is what will make the difference between the Gujarat of 2002 and the Gujarat of 2007. The bell tolls for Mr. Modi.